Fire AggroTier 1
at Haven Games Regionals
decks
3
(13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
12-2-0
overall winrate
85.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
75.3%
avg ELO +10.4 per match
expected value
60.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1268
· median 1303
· range 1172–1329
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1166
Q3 1328
1652
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 70.7% | +13.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Allies | 13.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.2% | +14.3 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.7% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
