Water Umbra RangerTier 1
at Haven Games Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.3% | -7.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Allies | 13.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.8 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demon's Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cruiser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbinder Apostle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |