Water AlliesTier 2
at Haven Games Regionals
decks
3
(13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-7-2
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1249
· range 1201–1357
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1166
Q3 1328
1652
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.8% | -14.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.6% | -8.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.8% | +8.8 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -10.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
