Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at Haven Games Regionals
decks
3
(13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-7-0
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
49.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1337
· median 1215
· range 1144–1652
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1166
Q3 1328
1652
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Water Allies | 13.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.2% | -8.8 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
