← Oddwillow's STORE CHAMPIONSHIP

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Oddwillow's STORE CHAMPIONSHIP. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Slimes 2 20.0% 6 83.3% 60.5% 58.3% 54.7% 1351 ↑ top
2 Fire Arcane 1 10.0% 4 75.0% 67.5% 56.0% 59.0% 1247
3 Fire Erupting 1 10.0% 4 75.0% 55.9% 54.7% 51.8% 1340 ↑ top
4 Wind Slimes 1 10.0% 4 37.5% 47.3% 47.5% 48.9% 1192 ↓ low
5 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 10.0% 4 37.5% 44.7% 46.0% 46.9% 1183 ↓ low
6 Wind Allies 2 20.0% 6 33.3% 39.5% 45.6% 45.9% 1279
7 Wind Shadowstrike 1 10.0% 3 33.3% 45.3% 45.0% 46.8% 1200 ↓ low
8 Fire Aggro 1 10.0% 3 0.0% 37.2% 40.0% 44.4% 1090 ↓ low