← Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 8/8/2024
Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 8/8/2024
decks
2
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1239
· median 1239
· range 1186–1291
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1210
Q3 1366
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Slimes | 14.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
