Fire EruptingTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
25.8%
avg ELO -14.0 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1472
· median 1472
· range 1472–1472
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1101
Q1 1271
Q3 1391
1571
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Wind Allies | 17.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.1 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Erupting decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
