SlimesTier 2
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.6% | +5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 17.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Water Allies | 11.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |