← Idle Thought Tournament @ Animangaki 2024
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Idle Thought Tournament @ Animangaki 2024.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 20.0% | 10 | 75.0% | 52.4% | 54.8% | 50.8% | 1361 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 51.5% | 52.4% | 50.4% | 1391 | — |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.8% | 51.4% | 51.0% | 1403 | — |
| 4 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.2% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 20.0% | 8 | 43.8% | 49.5% | 49.6% | 49.9% | 1392 | — |
| 6 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.6% | 48.0% | 50.2% | 1322 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.9% | 47.8% | 48.9% | 1315 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 46.1% | 37.3% | 48.1% | 1301 | ↓ low |