Fire Umbra CielTier 3
Filters
Current season
Every figure below — tier, winrate, EV, the matchup table, the
consensus decklist — is computed from the current
season (115 events).
See all-time pooled data.
decks
16
(0.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
110
44-60-6
overall winrate
42.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.7%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Consensus decklist
The cards across all 16 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklists. The bar and % show how many of those decks run the card. The material deck stays in deck order; main deck and sideboard rank by that %. ×N (main / sideboard) is average copies. Cards played in under 10% of decks are hidden. Click a card for full art.
Material Deck · 26 cards seen across these decklists
Spirit of Fire
Spirit of Serene Fire
Ciel, Loyal Valet
Ciel, Omenbringer
Ciel, Mirage's Grave
Lost Providence
The Looking Glass
Backup Charger
Bulwark Sword
Chalice of Blood
Grande Aiguille
Leporine Masque
Life Essence Amulet
Manxome Armoire
Nullifying Lantern
Nullifying Mirror
Orb of Sealing
Safeguard Amulet
Tariff Ring
Blight's Ring
Devouring Malice
Ducal Seal
Focusing Gem
Folded Shadows
Grande Sonnerie
Inert Sword
Main Deck · 63 cards seen across these decklists
Creative Shock
Dungeon Guide
Flamme Sorcel
Abnegation
Liminal Guide
Feu Awakening
Cremation Ritual
Turbo Charge
Umbra Sight
Crystallized Destiny
Angel Attendant
Library Witch
Heavy Swing
Stalwart Shieldmate
Pouvoir Absolu
Spring Cleaning
Lamentation's Toll
Angelic Channeling
Resolute Stand
Hasty Messenger
Slip Away
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Baleful Oblation
Beguiling Coup
Lightweaver's Infinite Shaping
Reduce to Ash
Conflagrant Sentinel
Idle Thoughts
Sablier Guard
Whimsy's Warden
Sinistre Stab
Topsy Decree
Inspiring Call
Palace Guard
Regal Inquisition
Devastating Blow
Spurn to Ash
Fast Cure
Fractal of Insight
Ombreux Chevalier
+ 23 more cards seen in a handful of decks each.
Sideboard · 20 cards seen across these decklists
Lavastorm
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Expel the Departed
Nocturne's Oblivion
Safeguard Amulet
Carter, Synthetic Reaper
Umbra Sight
Crystallized Destiny
Resolute Stand
Topsy Decree
Righteous Retribution
Stolen Chance
Varuckan Acolyte
Regal Inquisition
Spurn to Ash
Ducal Seal
Heavenly Guide
Infernal Vessel
Mirrorbound Covenant
Viridian Protective Trinket
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, summed across all events. Mirrors excluded. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 6.9% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 55.3% | +2.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 67.9% | +9.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 23.2% | -13.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 22.3% | -16.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.3% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.6% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 55.8% | +3.1 |
| Water Fractal | 4.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 46.4% | -2.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.3% | -6.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.5% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 70.0% | +11.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.9% | -9.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.7% | -22.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Water Exia | 2.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 60.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.0% | -15.7 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.6% | -2.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.8% | -8.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.5% | -13.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.7 |
| Luxem Mordred | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.5% | -26.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.5 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Alice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Water Luxem Mordred | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exalted Mordred | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fractal | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Mordred | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Razorgale | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Suited | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Alice | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Shadowstrike | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Fractal | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Cleric | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Mirror Analysis
Across 1 event that had at least one mirror, 1 mirror match are aggregated below. Named-spirit cards (e.g. "Sabrina, Spirit of Water") are collapsed to their basic equivalent so they don't read as flex-slot differences. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 5 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 5 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |