Water NeosTier 3
Filters
Current season
Every figure below — tier, winrate, EV, the matchup table, the
consensus decklist — is computed from the current
season (115 events).
See all-time pooled data.
decks
35
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
176
57-98-21
overall winrate
38.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
41.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Consensus decklist
The cards across all 35 public Water Neos decklists. The bar and % show how many of those decks run the card. The material deck stays in deck order; main deck and sideboard rank by that %. ×N (main / sideboard) is average copies. Cards played in under 10% of decks are hidden. Click a card for full art.
Material Deck · 20 cards seen across these decklists
Fragmented Spirit of Water
Spirit of Water
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary
Tonoris, Might of Humanity
Tonoris, Creation's Will
Tonoris, Genesis Aegis
Grand Crusader's Ring
Lost Providence
Backup Charger
Chalice of Blood
Nullifying Lantern
Reciprocity, Dorumegia's Call
Safeguard Amulet
Tariff Ring
Wayfinder's Map
Vaporjet Shield
Alchemical Scripture
Archon Broadsword
Ducal Seal
Sentinel Fabricator
Main Deck · 38 cards seen across these decklists
Atmos Armor Type-Ares
Blade of Creation
Dungeon Guide
Fracturize
Fractal of Waves
Iron Halo, Forcefield Node
Storm of Thorns
Fractal of Duplication
Song of Frost
Frostsworn Paladin
Angelic Channeling
Engulf
Refracting Missile
Shademist Priestess
Triumphant Mechanic
Throne Sentinel
Dormant Sacrificial Altar
Automata Genesis
Throne-Keeper Bullfrog
Spalling Cleanse
Neos Elemental
Academy Guide
Hector, Praetorian Guard
Fount Seraphim
Neos Sight
Diffusive Block
Cerulean Decree
Gentle Respite
Frostbind
Angel Attendant
Exalted Dorumegian Throne
Fractal of Rain
Hub of Innovation
Glacier Remnants
Summon Sentinels
The Eternal Kingdom
Imperial Countermeasure
Burst Asunder
Sideboard · 21 cards seen across these decklists
Song of Frost
Nullifying Lantern
Throne Sentinel
Orb of Sealing
Provoke Obstinance
Chime of Endless Dreams
Expel the Departed
Hector, Praetorian Guard
Heavenly Guide
Iron Halo, Forcefield Node
Safeguard Amulet
Dynastic Whirlpool
Shademist Priestess
Angel Attendant
Dredging Streams
Resolute Stand
Nullifying Mirror
Freezing Hail
Regal Inquisition
Unbroken Mustang
Blade of Creation
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, summed across all events. Mirrors excluded. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.6% | -4.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 15 | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 36.8% | 43.0% | -2.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 11 | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 30.0% | 37.0% | -5.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 7 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | 18.2% | 33.7% | -8.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 9 | 1-8-0 | 11.1% | 23.1% | 35.8% | -6.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.6% | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 42.3% | -3.4 |
| Water Fractal | 4.6% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 43.7% | -2.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -2.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.5% | 6 | 2-1-3 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 35.9% | -7.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +4.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Water Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 81.5% | +18.1 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +7.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 70.0% | +10.0 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.3% | -11.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.1% | -6.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 41.2% | -5.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 41.5% | -5.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 26.8% | -13.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Luxem Mordred | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.6% | -9.0 |
| Chess | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.2 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Alice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Mordred | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Nico | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 0.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exalted Mordred | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fractal | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Mordred | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Razorgale | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Suited | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Alice | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Shadowstrike | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Fractal | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Cleric | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Mirror Analysis
Across 1 event that had at least one mirror, 1 mirror match are aggregated below. Named-spirit cards (e.g. "Sabrina, Spirit of Water") are collapsed to their basic equivalent so they don't read as flex-slot differences. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blade of Creation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Waves | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Engulf | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Triumphant Mechanic | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wayfinder's Map | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rusted Warshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dormant Sacrificial Altar | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne Sentinel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fount Seraphim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reciprocity, Dorumegia's Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lakereaving Chill | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hector, Praetorian Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Iron Halo, Forcefield Node | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |