EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at IanTCG Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 80.0% | 62.2% | 58.2% | 55.1% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 70.0% | 56.6% | 56.4% | 54.6% | 1244 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 70.0% | 56.6% | 55.7% | 53.9% | 1366 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 56.2% | 53.9% | 51.1% | 50.8% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 56.2% | 54.1% | 51.0% | 50.9% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 11.8% | 9 | 44.4% | 47.4% | 48.6% | 48.9% | 1469 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 5 | 29.4% | 15 | 43.3% | 47.0% | 48.3% | 49.0% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 40.7% | 44.3% | 45.0% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.2% | 42.2% | 44.5% | 1264 | — |