← Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC 9/28/2024
Fire AggroTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC 9/28/2024
decks
15
(13.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
78
35-41-2
overall winrate
46.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1344
· median 1349
· range 1150–1528
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1272
Q3 1427
1736
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.6% | 21 | 8-12-1 | 40.5% | 42.0% | 49.0% | -0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.2% | 15 | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 31.6% | 44.4% | -2.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.4% | 10 | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 45.5% | -2.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.7% | +8.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.2% | +2.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.8% | +7.5 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 15 from this event
The 15 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Ignited Stab, Quicksilver Grail, Corhazi Courier. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Firetuned Automaton, Lurking Assailant.
Ignited Stab
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Quicksilver Grail
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Corhazi Courier
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Juggle Knives
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Firetuned Automaton
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Lurking Assailant
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Tonoris, Might of Humanity
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Blazing Bowman
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 73 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Firetuned Automaton | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blazing Charge | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Powered Sentinel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overwhelming Swing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blitz Mage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |