← Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC 9/28/2024
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC 9/28/2024
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.6% | 10 | 2-5-3 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 45.7% | -1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.8% | 15 | 11-4-0 | 73.3% | 68.4% | 55.6% | +2.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Allies | 3.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Zander | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disorienting Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Accepted Contract | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sharpening Stone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Betraying Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |