← Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC 9/28/2024

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC 9/28/2024

decks
10 (9.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
50 23-18-9
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1% avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
50.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1405 · median 1343 · range 1272–1736 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055 Q1 1272 Q3 1427 1736
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 10% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 26.6% 10 2-5-3 35.0% 39.3% 45.7% -1.9
Fire Aggro 13.8% 15 11-4-0 73.3% 68.4% 55.6% +2.3
Water Ravishing Mill 7.3% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -0.7
Fire Crux Mage 6.4% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 46.2% -2.9
Wind Allies 3.7% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 56.3% +4.7
Fire Crux Hybrid 2.8% 0
Water Allies 2.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.3% -3.5
Wind Luxem Assassin 2.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 43.4% -6.3
Wind Umbra Ranger 2.8% 0
Fire Arcane 1.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.9% -0.2
Fire Crux Merlin 1.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.8% -2.1
Fire Erupting 1.8% 0
Fire Slimes 1.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.1% +0.2
Wind Slice & Dice 1.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.2% -1.2
Fire Astra Cleric 0.9% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 0.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.6% -10.3
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.3% +6.9
Fire Zander 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.5% +2.3
Water Astra Cleric 0.9% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 0.9% 0
Water Tera Silvie 0.9% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 0.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% -0.0
Wind Astra Cleric 0.9% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.9% -0.2
Wind Crux Mage 0.9% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.9% 0
Wind Overlord 0.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.1% -6.2
Wind Silvie 0.9% 0
Wind Slimes 0.9% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 0.9% 0
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 2 0
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 2 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 2 0 0
Scout the Land +1.00 2 0 0
Umbra Sight -1.00 0 2 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 2 0 0
Vanish from Sight -1.00 0 2 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 2 0
Blinding Orb -1.00 0 2 0
Tristan, Shadowreaver +1.00 2 0 0
Disorienting Winds +0.50 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze -0.50 0 1 1
Stifling Trap +0.50 1 0 1
Accepted Contract +0.50 1 0 0
Sharpening Stone +0.50 1 0 0
Slice and Dice -0.50 0 1 1
Inspiring Call +0.50 1 0 0
Assassin's Ripper -0.50 0 1 1
Shadowstrike -0.50 0 1 1
Turbo Charge +0.50 1 0 1
Chalice of Blood -0.50 0 1 1
Fairy Whispers -0.50 0 1 1
Swift Recruit +0.50 1 0 0
Betraying Blade +0.50 1 0 0
Mastermind Scheme -0.50 0 1 1
Zephyr +0.50 1 0 1
Dream Fairy -0.50 0 1 1
Blackmarket Broker -0.50 0 1 1
Cleansing Reunion +0.50 1 0 0
Orchestrated Seizure +0.50 1 0 0
Sharpen Blade +0.50 1 0 0
Gloamspire Mantle +0.50 1 0 0
Gearstride Gloves +0.50 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.50 1 0 0
Innervate Agility +0.50 1 0 0
Reclaim +0.00 1 1 0
Beseech the Winds +0.00 1 1 0
Penumbral Waltz +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/10777/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike