← Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC 9/28/2024
Fire ArcaneTier 3
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC 9/28/2024
decks
2
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-6-2
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.9%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1236
· median 1236
· range 1166–1305
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1272
Q3 1427
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
