← Grand Archive Regional Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional Championship
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.0%
avg ELO -4.8 per match
expected value
54.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1200
· median 1200
· range 1200–1200
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1187
Q3 1280
1427
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
