← Grand Archive Regional Championship
Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional Championship
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
1-5-3
overall winrate
27.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.5%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1134
· median 1134
· range 1106–1162
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1187
Q3 1280
1427
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 17.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Water Allies | 8.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
