EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GGA Grand Archive Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 90.0% | 61.7% | 61.7% | 56.3% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 10.0% | 16 | 65.6% | 60.4% | 57.2% | 55.4% | 1267 | — |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 10.0% | 13 | 65.4% | 60.9% | 55.7% | 54.4% | 1345 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 53.1% | 52.5% | 49.9% | 1287 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Allies | 3 | 10.0% | 15 | 60.0% | 53.6% | 52.1% | 50.6% | 1357 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 4 | 13.3% | 17 | 55.9% | 55.7% | 51.4% | 51.8% | 1250 | — |
| 7 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 52.3% | 50.0% | 48.1% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Slimes | 5 | 16.7% | 22 | 54.5% | 55.0% | 49.8% | 50.7% | 1201 | — |
| 9 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.1% | 45.5% | 47.8% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 6.7% | 8 | 37.5% | 37.9% | 44.6% | 43.3% | 1207 | — |
| 11 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.0% | 43.8% | 45.0% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 43.6% | 44.6% | 1249 | — |
| 13 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 35.3% | 42.5% | 44.6% | 1136 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Overlord | 1 | 3.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 35.3% | 42.5% | 44.6% | 1136 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 10.0% | 17 | 38.2% | 46.0% | 42.2% | 45.0% | 1140 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 35.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | 1112 | ↓ low |