← Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins
decks
6
(11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
11-16-3
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.5%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1246
· median 1281
· range 1044–1415
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1149
Q3 1353
1576
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.4% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 39.3% | -5.4 |
| Wind Allies | 15.4% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.2% | -8.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.8% | -17.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.0% | -3.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.0% | +2.2 |
| Wind Cats | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
