← Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins
Wind AlliesTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins
decks
8
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
16-15-4
overall winrate
51.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1295
· median 1305
· range 1033–1576
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1149
Q3 1353
1576
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.4% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 44.5% | -3.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.5% | +8.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Deflecting Edge, Backup Charger. Losers more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel, Backstep.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Rallied Advance
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Favorable Winds
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Backstep
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 70 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Reclaim | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Displace | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Zephyr | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infusion of Crescent Jade | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fraternal Garrison | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sundering Moon | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shu Frontliner | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soothing Disillusion | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flute of Taming | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bertha, Spry Howitzer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Skirting Step | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 |