← Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins
Water Crux MageTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins
decks
3
(5.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
10-7-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.6%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
54.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1249
· median 1333
· range 994–1420
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1149
Q3 1353
1576
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Allies | 15.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.1% | +6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 61.8% | +8.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.3% | -20.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
