← Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins

SlimesTier 2

at Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins

decks
8 (15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35 14-17-4
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4% avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
48.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1238 · median 1216 · range 1062–1439 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
937 Q1 1149 Q3 1353 1576
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 12% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 15.4% 7 3-3-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.9% -1.6
Fire Crux Mage 11.5% 7 4-2-1 64.3% 59.1% 60.7% +5.4
Wind Razorgale 7.7% 5 0-4-1 10.0% 27.8% 34.9% -8.7
Water Crux Mage 5.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 55.0% +4.8
Fire Aggro 3.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.7% -2.5
Water Allies 3.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.2% +3.1
Water Ravishing Mill 3.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.7% +3.5
Wind Astra Cleric 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.9% -9.8
Wind Shadowstrike 3.8% 0
Fire Arcane 1.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.1% +0.1
Fire Astra Cleric 1.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.4% -3.4
Fire Exia 1.9% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.9% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.9% 0
Water Diana 1.9% 0
Water Tera Kongming 1.9% 0
Water Umbra Diana 1.9% 0
Wind Cats 1.9% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.9% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.9% 0
Wind Exia 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.8% +15.7
Wind Tera Silvie 1.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.2% -2.7
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Slime King, Nullifying Mirror. Losers more often ran: Lustrous Slime, Twilight Slime, Beastbond Ears.

Played more by winners
Slime King
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Lustrous Slime
Losing decks ran 4.0 copies on average, winning decks 3.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Twilight Slime
Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Beastbond Ears
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Lustrous Slime -1.00 0 3 0
Twilight Slime -1.00 0 3 0
Beastbond Ears -1.00 0 3 0
Entrancing Filigree +0.67 2 0 0
Kind Beastcaller +0.67 2 0 0
Hymn of Gaia's Grace -0.67 0 2 0
Nascent Blast +0.67 2 0 0
Orb of Sealing +0.33 1 0 0
Resolute Stand -0.33 1 2 0
Mystic Purifier -0.33 0 1 0
Slime King +0.33 2 1 0
Slimeshield -0.33 0 1 2
Nullifying Lantern +0.33 1 0 0
Scavenging Raccoon -0.33 0 1 2
Gaia's Songbird +0.33 1 0 2
Safeguard Amulet -0.33 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +0.33 2 1 0
Bestial Frenzy -0.33 0 1 0
Ordinary Bear +0.00 1 1 0
Slime's Blessing +0.00 1 1 0
Slime Eruption +0.00 1 1 1
Verdant Slime +0.00 1 1 0
Escape the Wreckage +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/12814/archetypes/Slimes