← ProjectCCG Store Championships - 02-16-2025

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ProjectCCG Store Championships - 02-16-2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Ravishing Mill 1 5.9% 5 100.0% 70.3% 62.5% 59.4% 1408
2 Wind Allies 1 5.9% 5 80.0% 62.6% 57.8% 56.4% 1376
3 Fire Slimes 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 41.6% 53.8% 46.6% 1736 ↑ top
4 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 11.8% 8 50.0% 45.1% 53.1% 50.3% 1615 ↑ top
5 Fire Aggro 3 17.6% 15 50.0% 50.0% 52.5% 52.0% 1443
6 Water Allies 2 11.8% 8 50.0% 58.5% 51.4% 54.4% 1334
7 Fire Ravishing Mill 1 5.9% 5 50.0% 53.1% 49.4% 51.5% 1301 ↓ low
8 Slimes 2 11.8% 5 20.0% 45.4% 44.3% 49.3% 1085 ↓ low
9 Water Penguin Mill 3 17.6% 10 30.0% 36.8% 41.3% 42.2% 1390
10 Fire Crux Mage 1 5.9% 2 0.0% 39.0% 40.0% 43.2% 1406