← Mana Pro Store Championship Singapore
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Mana Pro Store Championship Singapore
decks
3
(6.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
6-8-2
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1222
· median 1190
· range 1151–1326
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
953
Q1 1209
Q3 1457
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 20.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.1% | -10.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.2% | +4.0 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
