← Mana Pro Store Championship Singapore
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Mana Pro Store Championship Singapore
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 20.5% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.2% | +3.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 41.5% | -4.5 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Exia | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Kongming | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |