← Favonia Kampar (KAMPAR) - Mortal Ambitions Store Championships

Fire AggroTier 1

at Favonia Kampar (KAMPAR) - Mortal Ambitions Store Championships

decks
2 (12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7 5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.3% avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
55.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1322 · median 1322 · range 1217–1428 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032 Q1 1152 Q3 1408 1448
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 18.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 57.1% +6.8
Water Penguin Mill 12.5% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 31.6% -17.7
Wind Allies 12.5% 0
Fire Arcane 6.2% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 6.2% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 6.2% 0
Fire Polkhawk 6.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.2
Fire Slimes 6.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.5% +8.7
Water Luxem Assassin 6.2% 0
Wind Exia 6.2% 0
Wind Razorgale 6.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.9% +15.9
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Veteran Blazebearer -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Lunge +1.00 1 0 0
Dragon's Dawn +1.00 1 0 0
Captivating Cutthroat -1.00 0 1 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +1.00 1 0 0
Zander, Deft Executor -1.00 0 1 0
Heated Vengeance +1.00 1 0 0
Varuckan Soulknife -1.00 0 1 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven -1.00 0 1 0
Accepted Contract -1.00 0 1 0
Arthur, Young Heir +1.00 1 0 0
Mercenary's Blade -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 1 0 0
Mark the Target -1.00 0 1 0
Slice and Dice -1.00 0 1 0
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper -1.00 0 1 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +1.00 1 0 0
Creative Shock +1.00 1 0 0
Flame Sweep +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Gloamspire, Black Market -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Cremation Ritual +1.00 1 0 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Blademaster +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Throw +1.00 1 0 0
Fiery Momentum +1.00 1 0 0
Blinding Orb -1.00 0 1 0
Exploit Vulnerability -1.00 0 1 0
Drawn Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Sword Saint of Everflame +1.00 1 0 0
Innervate Fury +1.00 1 0 0
Corhazi Courier -1.00 0 1 0
Incapacitate -1.00 0 1 0
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief -1.00 0 1 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +1.00 1 0 0
Poisoned Dagger -1.00 0 1 0
Zander, Prepared Scout -1.00 0 1 0
Vicious Slice -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/13715/archetypes/Fire Aggro