← Favonia Kampar (KAMPAR) - Mortal Ambitions Store Championships
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Favonia Kampar (KAMPAR) - Mortal Ambitions Store Championships
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
9-2-1
overall winrate
79.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.2%
avg ELO +6.5 per match
expected value
58.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1413
· median 1413
· range 1404–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1152
Q3 1408
1448
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.7 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Exia | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
