EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mystery Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 3 | 21.4% | 13 | 73.1% | 75.9% | 58.3% | 61.0% | 1261 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Water Neos | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.1% | 55.6% | 51.5% | 1461 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.0% | 52.8% | 49.8% | 1526 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.3% | 51.2% | 47.1% | 1349 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 14.3% | 10 | 50.0% | 45.2% | 50.5% | 48.0% | 1516 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 14.3% | 10 | 45.0% | 43.7% | 47.9% | 46.4% | 1480 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.3% | 46.7% | 47.8% | 1327 | — |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.0% | 44.4% | 46.2% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 14.3% | 9 | 16.7% | 35.8% | 38.7% | 42.4% | 1325 | — |