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Fire ArcaneTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 11.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 57.7% | +4.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Rogue | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Water Vanitas | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |