← RWTCollective - ALC Store Championship
RogueTier 2
at RWTCollective - ALC Store Championship
decks
3
(6.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-7-2
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1416
· median 1528
· range 1152–1569
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1154
Q3 1384
1736
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.6% | -7.1 |
| Water Allies | 11.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.7% | +8.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.0 |
| Fire Triskit | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |