← RWTCollective - ALC Store Championship
Water VanitasTier 2
at RWTCollective - ALC Store Championship
decks
2
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
2-9-1
overall winrate
20.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.6%
avg ELO -7.4 per match
expected value
41.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1153
· median 1153
· range 1090–1217
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1154
Q3 1384
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Vanitas decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
