EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at AMB Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 10.5% | 14 | 67.9% | 62.6% | 58.6% | 57.9% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Slimes | 1 | 5.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 44.7% | 55.6% | 48.8% | 1461 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.3% | 8 | 68.8% | 65.7% | 55.4% | 56.0% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 5.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 46.5% | 52.0% | 49.2% | 1303 | — |
| 5 | Water Diana | 1 | 5.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 62.4% | 51.4% | 54.5% | 1268 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Penguin Mill | 3 | 15.8% | 12 | 45.8% | 48.7% | 50.8% | 51.4% | 1316 | — |
| 7 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 37.6% | 47.1% | 44.8% | 1607 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Exia | 2 | 10.5% | 8 | 43.8% | 48.2% | 46.9% | 48.4% | 1319 | — |
| 9 | Water Allies | 3 | 15.8% | 15 | 43.3% | 41.6% | 45.9% | 44.2% | 1344 | — |
| 10 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 10.5% | 9 | 38.9% | 46.8% | 45.4% | 48.0% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Arisanna | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.8% | 40.0% | 46.1% | 1267 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 45.4% | 40.0% | 44.4% | 1278 | ↓ low |