← Singapore Regionals at Agora Hobby
Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Singapore Regionals at Agora Hobby
decks
1
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.3%
avg ELO +5.7 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1633
· median 1633
· range 1633–1633
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1206
Q3 1410
1633
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Allies | 11.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
