← Singapore Regionals at Agora Hobby
RogueTier 2
at Singapore Regionals at Agora Hobby
decks
2
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-7-1
overall winrate
31.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.7%
avg ELO -4.5 per match
expected value
42.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1307
· range 1203–1412
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1206
Q3 1410
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 11.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |