← Singapore Regionals at Agora Hobby
Water AlliesTier 1
at Singapore Regionals at Agora Hobby
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 9 | 1-6-2 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 32.4% | -8.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 12 | 10-2-0 | 83.3% | 75.0% | 68.3% | +7.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.2% | -5.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.8% | +11.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.2% | -8.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.4 |
| Rogue | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Esteemed Knight, Frostbind, Blanche, Sheltering Saint. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Trained Sharpshooter, Snow Fairy.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Enchanting | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Novice Mechanist | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |