EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at IanTCG Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Penguin Mill | 4 | 13.3% | 18 | 75.0% | 71.0% | 60.6% | 61.2% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 57.6% | 53.5% | 52.2% | 1289 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 10.0% | 15 | 63.3% | 59.4% | 52.0% | 51.6% | 1288 | — |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 10.0% | 15 | 53.3% | 49.2% | 50.1% | 47.6% | 1311 | — |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 40.0% | 47.2% | 49.6% | 50.7% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.4% | 48.9% | 49.7% | 1239 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Allies | 2 | 6.7% | 8 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 48.1% | 48.5% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Razorgale | 4 | 13.3% | 19 | 50.0% | 45.8% | 47.8% | 45.8% | 1247 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Slimes | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 40.0% | 44.8% | 46.7% | 48.1% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Ravishing Mill | 4 | 13.3% | 19 | 42.1% | 49.2% | 46.2% | 48.9% | 1277 | — |
| 11 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 39.7% | 45.7% | 46.0% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 36.6% | 44.1% | 41.6% | 1520 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Exia | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 32.4% | 41.8% | 41.7% | 1232 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Silvie | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.1% | 36.2% | 38.6% | 1078 | ↓ low |