← Grand Archive - Mortal Ambition UK Regional

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive - Mortal Ambition UK Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Cats 1 6.7% 3 83.3% 67.6% 58.6% 62.4% 1244
2 Water Slimes 1 6.7% 4 75.0% 59.2% 57.5% 56.0% 1264
3 Water Penguin Mill 5 33.3% 15 70.0% 61.9% 56.6% 54.9% 1318 ↑ top
4 Water Allies 1 6.7% 4 62.5% 57.7% 52.0% 52.6% 1206
5 Water Ravishing Mill 1 6.7% 5 60.0% 54.0% 48.7% 48.9% 1340 ↑ top
6 Slimes 1 6.7% 5 40.0% 45.9% 48.0% 48.8% 1163 ↓ low
7 Wind Shadowstrike 2 13.3% 8 50.0% 51.8% 43.9% 45.5% 1178 ↓ low
8 Water Crux Merlin 1 6.7% 3 0.0% 31.0% 40.0% 40.9% 1054 ↓ low
9 Wind Astra Cleric 1 6.7% 4 37.5% 39.2% 39.8% 36.9% 1420 ↑ top
10 Fire Polkhawk 1 6.7% 3 0.0% 30.2% 35.6% 36.6% 1023 ↓ low
11 Water Tera Mage 1 6.7% 4 0.0% 31.8% 35.2% 39.8% 1097 ↓ low