← Grand Archive - Mortal Ambition UK Regional
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive - Mortal Ambition UK Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Cats | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 83.3% | 67.6% | 58.6% | 62.4% | 1244 | — |
| 2 | Water Slimes | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 59.2% | 57.5% | 56.0% | 1264 | — |
| 3 | Water Penguin Mill | 5 | 33.3% | 15 | 70.0% | 61.9% | 56.6% | 54.9% | 1318 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Allies | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 57.7% | 52.0% | 52.6% | 1206 | — |
| 5 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.0% | 48.7% | 48.9% | 1340 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Slimes | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.9% | 48.0% | 48.8% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 13.3% | 8 | 50.0% | 51.8% | 43.9% | 45.5% | 1178 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 31.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | 1054 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 39.2% | 39.8% | 36.9% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.2% | 35.6% | 36.6% | 1023 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 0.0% | 31.8% | 35.2% | 39.8% | 1097 | ↓ low |