EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at AMB Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slimes | 5 | 17.9% | 17 | 76.5% | 61.7% | 59.3% | 55.5% | 1325 | — |
| 2 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 66.3% | 55.3% | 60.3% | 1410 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Penguin Mill | 2 | 7.1% | 13 | 73.1% | 49.9% | 54.3% | 47.8% | 1538 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Allies | 2 | 7.1% | 8 | 62.5% | 49.4% | 50.8% | 47.3% | 1316 | — |
| 5 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 7.1% | 11 | 59.1% | 62.1% | 50.3% | 53.2% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 7.1% | 8 | 56.2% | 57.4% | 50.0% | 52.1% | 1417 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.5% | 46.7% | 47.5% | 1319 | — |
| 8 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.6% | 46.7% | 48.4% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 49.3% | 46.0% | 49.8% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Silvie | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 37.5% | 44.8% | 46.0% | 47.3% | 1468 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.0% | 45.7% | 49.8% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.7% | 45.3% | 46.2% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 46.9% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Kongming | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.6% | 43.3% | 49.2% | 1305 | — |
| 15 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 33.8% | 43.0% | 42.7% | 1301 | — |
| 16 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 38.0% | 42.0% | 43.1% | 1303 | — |
| 17 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.4% | 41.3% | 44.0% | 956 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Tera Silvie | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 44.6% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 7.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 41.1% | 34.5% | 39.8% | 1227 | ↓ low |