EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ArtofCards AMB Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Slimes

52.3%

25.0% share · 43 matches

1st

Wind Razorgale

54.6%

22.2% share · 37 matches

2.8% share · 6 matches

↑ top

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Razorgale	8	22.2%	37	60.8%	53.2%	54.6%	51.0%	1410	↑ top
2	Slimes	9	25.0%	43	61.6%	62.4%	52.3%	54.4%	1274	—
3	Wind Umbra Tristan	1	2.8%	6	50.0%	51.0%	50.8%	51.3%	1426	↑ top
4	Water Arisanna	1	2.8%	6	50.0%	56.0%	50.4%	51.7%	1232	↓ low
5	Wind Allies	3	8.3%	17	50.0%	53.2%	49.6%	51.8%	1241	↓ low
6	Fire Crux Mage	2	5.6%	11	36.4%	42.3%	48.9%	50.7%	1435	↑ top
7	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	2.8%	6	50.0%	52.7%	48.8%	50.6%	1230	↓ low
8	Wind Tera Mage	1	2.8%	6	50.0%	45.3%	47.4%	44.5%	1284	—
9	Fire Aggro	1	2.8%	6	50.0%	52.2%	47.0%	48.4%	1126	↓ low
10	Water Ravishing Mill	4	11.1%	17	44.1%	37.0%	46.4%	43.6%	1393	↑ top
11	Wind Shadowstrike	1	2.8%	5	20.0%	34.1%	42.1%	42.5%	1160	↓ low
12	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	2.8%	5	50.0%	53.1%	41.8%	44.2%	1164	↓ low
13	Wind Crux Mage	1	2.8%	5	0.0%	19.4%	40.0%	39.4%	1254	—
14	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.8%	6	25.0%	46.1%	37.6%	43.7%	1122	↓ low
15	Fire Arcane	1	2.8%	6	33.3%	46.8%	36.7%	40.7%	1357	—