Water Crux MageTier 2
at AMB Massachusetts Regionals
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.2%
avg ELO -7.4 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1422
· median 1422
· range 1422–1422
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1196
Q3 1397
1638
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Water Polkhawk | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
