Water Luxem AssassinTier 1
at AMB Massachusetts Regionals
decks
2
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
8-2-2
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.0%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
55.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1465
· median 1465
· range 1349–1582
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1196
Q3 1397
1638
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 15.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
