Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at AMB Massachusetts Regionals
decks
3
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
10-8-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.0%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1204
· median 1163
· range 1139–1311
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1196
Q3 1397
1638
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 15.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.2% | -1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Water Polkhawk | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -15.0 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.1% | +17.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
