Water Penguin MillTier 1
at AMB Massachusetts Regionals
decks
6
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
17-12-5
overall winrate
57.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1436
· median 1397
· range 1282–1638
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1196
Q3 1397
1638
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.8% | +1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.5% | +8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.5% | -10.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.7 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.2% | -6.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
