Fire AggroTier 2
at 淡水 貓腳印 AMB 店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.3% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 65.3% | +8.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |