EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 13.0% | 13 | 76.9% | 66.6% | 59.1% | 58.0% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 59.2% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 1335 | — |
| 3 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 7 | 64.3% | 61.0% | 53.7% | 54.2% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.5% | 51.7% | 51.1% | 1333 | — |
| 5 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 13.0% | 14 | 53.6% | 45.8% | 51.1% | 48.8% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Slimes | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 55.6% | 50.0% | 53.5% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 50.0% | 54.2% | 49.6% | 52.0% | 1262 | — |
| 8 | Water Penguin Mill | 3 | 13.0% | 14 | 46.4% | 39.4% | 49.1% | 45.9% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 13.0% | 15 | 43.3% | 46.1% | 47.5% | 48.7% | 1200 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 3 | 13.0% | 11 | 31.8% | 41.3% | 42.7% | 45.3% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.1% | 42.5% | 44.0% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 10.0% | 41.2% | 41.0% | 47.1% | 1031 | ↓ low |