EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at QLD Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 52.3% | 60.3% | 57.2% | 1438 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 63.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.1% | 8 | 75.0% | 64.7% | 57.5% | 56.8% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.7% | 55.6% | 55.8% | 1242 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 71.4% | 59.8% | 52.0% | 52.2% | 1563 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Slimes | 5 | 15.6% | 32 | 56.2% | 53.4% | 51.4% | 50.7% | 1298 | — |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 9.4% | 15 | 46.7% | 51.0% | 51.1% | 52.4% | 1320 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 18.8% | 26 | 50.0% | 47.5% | 50.6% | 49.7% | 1293 | — |
| 9 | Wind Cats | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.8% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.4% | 49.3% | 52.8% | 1248 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.0% | 48.2% | 47.7% | 1285 | — |
| 12 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.6% | 47.8% | 50.0% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.6% | 47.8% | 50.0% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Exia | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 47.4% | 49.2% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 64.3% | 46.9% | 46.8% | 44.1% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.5% | 46.2% | 47.2% | 1318 | — |
| 17 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 40.4% | 44.1% | 44.8% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 49.7% | 44.1% | 43.1% | 1262 | — |
| 19 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.6% | 42.0% | 42.7% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 0.0% | 21.4% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1335 | — |
| 21 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.8% | 40.0% | 41.5% | 1156 | ↓ low |