EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Apex AMB Store Champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Penguin Mill | 5 | 19.2% | 19 | 57.9% | 55.9% | 55.8% | 54.5% | 1297 | — |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 75.0% | 61.3% | 55.3% | 54.8% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Overlord | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 66.7% | 63.4% | 55.0% | 55.9% | 1254 | — |
| 4 | Slimes | 3 | 11.5% | 12 | 62.5% | 58.8% | 53.4% | 52.1% | 1240 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 7.7% | 7 | 64.3% | 43.9% | 52.8% | 47.7% | 1509 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 66.7% | 53.0% | 52.7% | 50.7% | 1492 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.5% | 50.8% | 51.8% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.8% | 3 | 50.0% | 48.2% | 50.0% | 49.0% | 1321 | — |
| 9 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.0% | 48.0% | 52.0% | 1283 | — |
| 10 | Water Allies | 2 | 7.7% | 6 | 16.7% | 36.2% | 46.1% | 48.3% | 1268 | — |
| 11 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.1% | 45.0% | 43.7% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Crux Mage | 4 | 15.4% | 15 | 46.7% | 52.9% | 44.1% | 47.8% | 1337 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.9% | 40.0% | 41.8% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Arisanna | 1 | 3.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 31.6% | 40.0% | 39.3% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 10.0% | 28.3% | 39.7% | 40.0% | 1166 | ↓ low |