← MSG Mortal Ambition Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MSG Mortal Ambition Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Penguin Mill | 2 | 16.7% | 10 | 70.0% | 64.9% | 57.0% | 57.3% | 1331 | — |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 54.2% | 55.6% | 52.0% | 1367 | — |
| 3 | Water Allies | 2 | 16.7% | 10 | 60.0% | 49.9% | 51.8% | 48.2% | 1492 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.8% | 48.3% | 47.1% | 1330 | — |
| 5 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 16.7% | 9 | 44.4% | 48.3% | 47.5% | 48.6% | 1310 | — |
| 6 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.0% | 45.3% | 48.1% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 51.3% | 45.0% | 49.2% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 16.7% | 40.3% | 42.0% | 45.2% | 1270 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Slimes | 1 | 8.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.4% | 40.0% | 41.8% | 1174 | ↓ low |