← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship
decks
3
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-7-2
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
54.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1370
· median 1375
· range 1201–1535
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1192
Q3 1398
1535
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 22.2% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 69.0% | +12.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
