← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship
Water LorraineTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.7%
avg ELO -8.2 per match
expected value
38.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1131
· median 1131
· range 1131–1131
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1192
Q3 1398
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 22.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.9% | -16.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
